The Space ThreadSpaceX · Starlink · FCC · launch cadence
We read the FCC orders, SEC releases and launch logs so the numbers in each post can be checked. Two or three verified figures, one short verdict.
Vandenberg has hosted 66 Falcon 9 launches this year, already more than the 64 it saw in all of 2025. Florida is at 50, after 101 last year. The workhorse rocket is turning into a California operation, and the Cape's share is shrinking fast.
Follow on XQuiet FCC order: DA 26 1129 gives SpaceX three Tristar AWS-3 licenses, uplink only, covering about 4% of Americans. That takes SpaceX to 75 MHz in those markets, and tower buildout rules were swapped for satellite throughput tests from 2029. Satellites now count as buildout.
Follow on XMusk says Ukraine's military broke Starlink's terms of service and the loophole is closed, while Starshield is a separate system the US government controls. One company, two networks, and now a public line between them. Government revenue gets awkward when that line is political.
Follow on XBolivia is putting Starlink in public schools: 307 schools and 73,000+ students in the first La Paz deals, about 5,000 antennas nationally per the education minister. The state pays two years. From month 25 the municipalities pay, and that's when we learn how many stay on.
Follow on XSpaceX's FCC filing for the Grain 800 MHz deal is worth five minutes. Up to 14 MHz of low band spectrum, bought 8 Oct, and the plan talks about radios on towers and rooftops. That's a terrestrial network. Starlink Mobile wants to be a carrier, with satellites as backup.
Follow on XFalcon 9 flew 7 times in September after running 11 to 15 a month most of the year, and only 1 of those left Florida. It's at 116 flights in 2026 vs 165 last year. The rocket isn't slowing so much as being retired from the routine Starlink jobs.
Follow on XRead the FCC order, not the press release. DA 26 1078 lets SpaceX launch 15,000 direct to phone satellites, but half must be up by 7 Oct 2032 and the rest by 7 Oct 2035, with a surety bond due 4 Nov. It's a license that only pays off if Starship cadence shows up.
Read on XStarlink ended Q3 with 13.6M consumer subscribers, up from 12.0M in June and 7.2M a year ago. ARPU is $69 a month vs $83 a year ago, though it rose from $66 last quarter. Volume nearly doubled at a lower price. If ARPU keeps climbing back, that's the better story.
Read on XMusk says SpaceX just closed $40B of debt for GPUs, mostly callable, for chips arriving in Q1 and Q2. The pitch to lenders is Starlink and launch cash. Q3 capex was already $19.6B, $16.4B of it on AI. The rockets and dishes are now collateral for the compute bet.
Read on XOne email a week: the filings, the numbers and a short verdict. Free.
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